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Here’s How Low Biden’s Black Vote Approval Rate Really Is

It’s not looking good for you, old man.

The freakout among Democrats is going to be amazingly intense when they finally pass infrastructure and Biden’s polls barely budge.

In fact, they may be so desperate for some midterm turnout juice next summer that they end up quietly rooting for SCOTUS to overturn Roe.

The news in this Morning Consult poll isn’t so much what’s changed as what hasn’t. I wrote about their previous poll last month, after Biden issued his federal vaccine mandate. That sent his numbers tumbling among African-Americans, especially the unvaccinated. Within that group he went from 35 percent net job approval (i.e. approval minus disapproval) to 18 percent net approval in just 12 days. He dipped a bit among vaccinated African-Americans too but only a bit, just six net points.

It’s now almost a month later. The good news for him is that he hasn’t lost any more ground among unvaccinated black voters. The bad news is that he has lost more ground among the vaccinated. His numbers aren’t recovering among a core Democratic demographic. They’re getting worse.

Looking at that graph, you can see that he didn’t decline much with black voters during the Afghanistan withdrawal fiasco over the final two weeks of August. (In fact, he lost less ground with the unvaccinated during that period than he did during the first two weeks of August, interestingly.) It was the federal mandate that really hurt him, dropping his numbers across both vaccine cohorts here. As to why he’s continued to see his numbers drop, Morning Consult has a theory:

Sentiment about Biden among both vaccinated and unvaccinated Black Americans appeared to be improving slightly in late September, but that recovery stalled as his administration’s handling of Haitian refugees at the U.S.-Mexico border dominated headlines, prompting a weakening in his standing among vaccinated Black Americans…
Black voters were more likely than the average voter (68 percent to 58 percent) to report having seen, read or heard at least something about the administration’s work to deport Haitian refugees, according to Morning Consult/Politico polling.

I’m skeptical. It seems too pat that African-Americans would lose faith in him over a few days of bad news coverage about a group of black immigrants at the border. I think their slide is better explained as part of a general decline in public confidence in Biden as COVID surged and the economy slowed. The fact that some key priorities for black voters seem to be going nowhere in Congress may be starting to bite too:

Robinson, founder of the Black Male Voter Project, … remembers the exact moment his optimism that President Biden would be different began to fade: when Democrats in May said they were willing to significantly weaken a policing-reform bill to get Republican support.
More disappointments followed. Robinson was dismayed that Biden did not push for changes to the filibuster to enact a $15 minimum wage. He was upset that the president did not try to halt a raft of voting restrictions passed by Georgia’s GOP-led legislature.
“I think the frustration is at an all-time high, and Biden can’t go to Georgia or any other Black state in the South and say, ‘This is what we delivered in 2021,’ ” said Robinson, whose group believes it reached 1.2 million Black men in Georgia. “Black men are pissed off about the nothingness that has happened. . . . Does it make the work harder? It makes the work damn near impossible.”

Maybe it’s sinking in that Biden and his party just aren’t going to deliver for them. Whatever the explanation, Morning Consult has him down 25 net points with African-Americans since August 1. Among the unvaccinated specifically, it’s 36 net points. The Economist/YouGov poll that Ed wrote about earlier has seen a similar decline, from +61 net approval among blacks at the end of August (74/13) to +34 now (61/27). That’s a loss of 27 net points within two months.

What happens to Terry McAuliffe in Virginia when black voters decide not to show up?

There’s another poll out today that should worry Dems. At a moment when they’re haggling with each other to decide whether to spend more than $2 trillion on social welfare programs or a mere $1.5 trillion, Gallup finds that Americans have reverted to their traditional belief that the government is trying to do too many things. Last year, for the first time in nearly 20 years, Americans actually wanted to see government do more to solve problems:

The surge towards activist government in 2020 was probably a reaction to the pandemic, just as the surge towards activist government in 2001 was a reaction to 9/11. But even if so, Americans seem to want to retrench rather than keep up the COVID-era trend of expanding government services:

If you’re a vulnerable centrist Democrat representing a swing district, how do you feel about spending another $2 trillion when you look at a graph like that, knowing that anxiety about inflation is rising every day? It’s been said before but it can’t be said enough: Biden may have won fair and square last year but he didn’t earn a mandate to become the next FDR.

Not with the general public, at least. Black Democrats may feel differently. Hence the Dems’ dilemma: Whether they go big on reconciliation or back away, some large and important group of voters seems destined to be disappointed. Time for them to choose their poison.

Sources: HotAir: Decline: Biden’s job approval down 25 net points with black voters since August 1

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Written by Joshua Jackson

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  1. I’m glad they are finally waking up. We tried to tell them they were being set up for failure by the dems. Who by the way ran the KKK not Republicans. Jim Crow was a democract not a Republican. All you have to do is google or look it up. History is full of dems trying to stop the black people from accomplishing anything. Take a look at bidens old speeches.

  2. Black voters need to show up and vote in Virginia. Vote Republican and get your life back. Get your jobs and education back. Stop listening to the dems. They are liars and are making money off your hard life.

  3. Let’s be honest the democrats are screwing over black boters right on with the rest of America. Anyone still trying to pretend the democrats are good or that everything is fine are fools or complete liars.

    The democrats are a schiff show that has drsoliticied into a pool of stinking goo. There is no redeeming value in the democrat party.

    Wa n t to scream about white supremacy? Well look at your kkk democrat leadership.
    Want to complian about dictators? Well look at your democrat leadership.
    Want to complain about corruption? Well look at your democrat leadership.
    Want to scream about voter suppression? The voter suppression does not get any worse then the democrats voter fraud!

    You simply can not vote democrat

    You have a great Let’s go Brandon day
    Let’s go Brandon
    Let’s go branfon

  4. I applaud what the left has done in talking over and over about the Tuskegee before and during the war, with syphilis!
    It has kept on the forefront of the Black population, the miseries, the deadly experiments, and the abject treatment of the infected!
    Thanks to the STUPIDITY of the leftist media AHOLES, they have warned the black population of what the “white man” does to his slaves and the poor!
    So, now, the black population’s nerves are exacerbated to a point of total unbelief in the majority of the cases. Many hardcore blacks will always believe the “democrats” have their back, and will do all they can to help them. Like the ones at the Communist News Network!!!??? “YOU CAN’T FIX STUPID!” RON WHITE, A GREAT COMEDIAN!
    WRONG, ON ALL POINTS!
    Remember that speech MALCOLM X did in that little church in 1963? Then he did it again in a bigger venue. MALCOLM X told the world the “democrat” never wanted the blacks to get out of poverty and slavery! More and more blacks will feel the oppression the DEMON RATS are putting on them! They are changing their tunes already!
    BAD FOR THE DEMON RATS!

  5. I’m not sure why black think the democrats party is their party! When this is the party that TRY TO KEEP THEM FROM VOTING RIGHTS! When it the party that wrote and pass the SYSTEM THEY CALL RACIST! It even the party that DOESN’T WANT TO SEE THEM SUCCEED IN LIFE ON THEIR OWN! But I guess they think the NAACP AND SOUTHERN PROVERTY is NOT LYING TO THEM! A these group got to do is claim it the WHITE MAN FAULT! Well take a good look in the DEMOCRAT PARTY! Do you see intelligent BLACK PEOPLE IN IT? OR ONES WHO DON’T CARE ABOUT YOU? Just their OWN life and financial goal for their own family!

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